SIL 2010: HB-LED market to grow 53% this year

Our 11th annual Strategies in Light event ended last week and it was symbolic of the LED and LED lighting market. Booming. In fact, the big takeaway is exactly that. The HB-LED market will surge 53% in 2010 to $8.2 billion, going to $20.2 billion by 2014. Did you get that? That’s $20 billion. That's a respectable number compared to other components sectors, like semiconductors and displays. And, it grew 5% in 2009, despite the recession.

This is so big, saying much else takes away from the message. And anyway, my colleagues at LEDs Magazine were all over the event, so you can go there to find out the details. You might especially like this chart of our LED market forecast, at the magazine’s site.




The event was a indication of the expectations in the LED market. We had nearly 3,000 total attendees and 88 exhibitors, each up about 50% from 2009.


The LED lighting part of the event is really gaining mindshare, with its separate conference track, LED lighting tutorials, a new Solid-State Lighting Investors Forum, and a new LED Lighting pavilion in the exhibit area. There was also a lot of discussion about broader systems issues like LED-specific thermal management, suitable optics, efficient drivers, LED-friendly controllers, and all that. In short, it’s not just about the LED anymore.

HB-LED market on track for strong growth

When a market drops about 4% in a year like this, it's almost a relief that it's not worse. But when it looks to grow 32% per year compounded from 2009 through 2013, that's really good news. That is the situation in the high-brightness LED market.

In our new HB-LED market report, we are forecasting the worldwide market to decline 3.7% in 2009 from $5.1 billion in 2008 due to the declining sales in the end-user markets, mainly mobile phone handsets and automotive. But we project growth to resume in 2010 on the assumption that the worldwide economy will be recovering by then.

Meanwhile, there is increasing penetration in new applications, particularly in LCD backlighting and general lighting. As these segments kick in, thanks also to improving technology, the growth rates surge some more, to reach $14.9 billion in 2013. By the way, these values represent packaged LEDs, not chips or lighting fixtures.

The top level forecast isn't much different from the forecast we presented at our Strategies in Light Conference in February, but now we have a good part of 2009 behind us. The report has a lot more detail than the conference, of course, and is an update of our report last year around this time.

Did I mention that the new report is our 10th edition on the HB-LEDs market? We first reported on it in 1995. (We already reported this year on lighting fixtures and replacement lamps.)

When a 5% decline in the market looks great

You know the times are tough when a market is forecast to decline 5% and people are in a good mood. That's how it seemed at our SIL event this year. SIL is our Strategies in Light conference and expo for high-brightnesss LEDs. Even in the midst of the biggest recession in decades we broke our previous record and had over 2,000 total attendees.

My colleague Bob Steele forecast that the HB-LED market will drop 5% in 2009, mainly due to falling sales in end-use applications in mobile phones (a first for that business), automobiles, and LED video screen. Actually, it will drop more like 10% if you take out the emerging application of back lights for LCD TVs. That's a promising application, but restricted to some vertically-integrated players, so it's very hard to break into.

Of course, as with any forecast right now, this one is looking ahead based on what we know now. Actual results may vary. We'll keep you posted.

It's our 10th year doing SIL, and this year it had 6 workshops and 2 conference tracks: one on HB-LEDs and one on solid-state lighting. Another fellow analyst Vrinda Bhandarkar ran the new lighting track, bringing in the people who do lighting fixture designs, kind of taking things to a new level for our event.