The mood at Photonics West reminded me of a team when it’s winning its games. The mood was good and no one wanted to spend too much time second guessing what they are doing. Whatever they are doing, it’s working.
This is no surprise, really, given that photonics markets were all up in 2010 over 2009 (see the annual Laser Focus market article--more on the other markets in future posts). Just showing up is an accomplishment, two years after the recession hit.
This is in sharp contrast to this time 2009, when it still wasn’t clear how deep and how long the recession would go. While the recession itself wasn’t the fault of the photonics industry, the stock market was nervous. Company executives had to go over and over their businesses and make corrections. All the while hoping for a few big wins.
If you listen carefully, there were whispers that not everyone is better off than last year. Especially among the smaller, private companies, and among venture financed companies that might be running out of time for a successful exit. And while some said that credit and investment has thawed, others said that the money is going elsewhere. It depends who you are.
But that's for another day. The event broke its record with over 19,000 attendees, split approximately evenly among conference attendees, show attendees, and exhibitors. Even the weather was unseasonably warm.
No one is second guessing the move to San Francisco anymore either. SPIE is happy with the San Francisco location and has no plans to return to San Jose.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
The Un-Trends in Photonics Markets
In the last post I ruminated on the best market trends of the decade in photonics. This time we examine that trends that weren't: the Un-Trends.
The decline of optical storage. Remember laser disks that were as big as vinyl records? Remember when CDs were displacing magnetic tapes? Remember CDs? The business of optical storage has been hit by a triple whammy: falling sales as downloads increase and falling prices due to commoditization. The iPad is the next big thing and--surprise!--there's no DVD player there. Not now, not ever. The future for optical storage is now in mass storage. And there's a chance that lasers will be needed to take magnetic storage a little further. Stay tuned.
The long winter of telecom components. The telecom components business never really recovered from the boom of the late 90s. Or shall we say it's back to the business it always was. Components. There are some successes, and stock prices are back to "normal," but overall it's nothing to brag about. Companies struggled through the decade to fill their fabs, move production to China, and just stay open. It's better now, but somehow it feels like there wasn't closure.
The elusive photonic integrated circuit. Twenty years ago it was called the OEIC, the optoelectronic integrated circuit. That was Bell Labs. In the 90s, Japanese companies pushed PLCs, photonic lightwave circuits. Now there are photonic integrated circuits (PICs) and the likes of Infinera and Luxtera. And of course there's the mother-of-all-quests: Intel's search for the silicon laser. (A 2006 article asks: lasers integrated into CMOS by 2010?) It's all nice work, and we're happy for Infinera--it's done a remarkable job. But the classical idea of the uber-circuit that will integrate smoothly with silicon--it's soooo 20th century. Get over it. What works is very piecemeal: some hybrid pick-and-place here, monolithic integration of a modulator there, and even then the economics can be questionable. The problem is that these approaches work best when you have high volumes, but high volume products are already commoditized in Asian factories. The real successes are much less dramatic. Think optical mouse, not 100G.
Optical computing is dead, long live optics in computing! I mean here the type of optical computing where the processor is all-optical. I worked on a project about this in the 1990s, with Japan, and there's still a little funding in it. The closest thing to it nowadays may be the all-optical telecom switch. (The name "switch" doesn't do it justice. They are pretty complex.) The optical processor is a nice idea ("it travels at the speed of light!") but it turns out that electronics is really really good, and really really cheap. Oh, and it's way easy to program. Now if you are talking about "optics in computing", that's another thing. There are optics everywhere inside a computer: the display, the mouse, the camera, the DVD player, maybe even a fiber cable someday (one can hope).
The death of CRTs, photographic film, and fax machines. The triumph of flat displays means the death of CRTs. What a great technology. Tubes are still preferred in various niches in electronics (take apart your microwave oven if you don't believe me). But I'm glad to see them go. Ever tried to carry a big CRT? (You can still buy one. Check Amazon.) Photographic film is still around too, although the last Kodachrome processor closed after Kodak stopped supporting the chemicals needed to develop it (see photos from the last roll here). It's hard to miss film, especially in the dentist's office or the hospital x-ray lab. And fax machines will still be around for faxing legal and medical documents, and for receiving wacky advertisements (does that ever sell anything?).
There's more, but isn't 5 enough?
The decline of optical storage. Remember laser disks that were as big as vinyl records? Remember when CDs were displacing magnetic tapes? Remember CDs? The business of optical storage has been hit by a triple whammy: falling sales as downloads increase and falling prices due to commoditization. The iPad is the next big thing and--surprise!--there's no DVD player there. Not now, not ever. The future for optical storage is now in mass storage. And there's a chance that lasers will be needed to take magnetic storage a little further. Stay tuned.
The long winter of telecom components. The telecom components business never really recovered from the boom of the late 90s. Or shall we say it's back to the business it always was. Components. There are some successes, and stock prices are back to "normal," but overall it's nothing to brag about. Companies struggled through the decade to fill their fabs, move production to China, and just stay open. It's better now, but somehow it feels like there wasn't closure.
The elusive photonic integrated circuit. Twenty years ago it was called the OEIC, the optoelectronic integrated circuit. That was Bell Labs. In the 90s, Japanese companies pushed PLCs, photonic lightwave circuits. Now there are photonic integrated circuits (PICs) and the likes of Infinera and Luxtera. And of course there's the mother-of-all-quests: Intel's search for the silicon laser. (A 2006 article asks: lasers integrated into CMOS by 2010?) It's all nice work, and we're happy for Infinera--it's done a remarkable job. But the classical idea of the uber-circuit that will integrate smoothly with silicon--it's soooo 20th century. Get over it. What works is very piecemeal: some hybrid pick-and-place here, monolithic integration of a modulator there, and even then the economics can be questionable. The problem is that these approaches work best when you have high volumes, but high volume products are already commoditized in Asian factories. The real successes are much less dramatic. Think optical mouse, not 100G.
Optical computing is dead, long live optics in computing! I mean here the type of optical computing where the processor is all-optical. I worked on a project about this in the 1990s, with Japan, and there's still a little funding in it. The closest thing to it nowadays may be the all-optical telecom switch. (The name "switch" doesn't do it justice. They are pretty complex.) The optical processor is a nice idea ("it travels at the speed of light!") but it turns out that electronics is really really good, and really really cheap. Oh, and it's way easy to program. Now if you are talking about "optics in computing", that's another thing. There are optics everywhere inside a computer: the display, the mouse, the camera, the DVD player, maybe even a fiber cable someday (one can hope).
The death of CRTs, photographic film, and fax machines. The triumph of flat displays means the death of CRTs. What a great technology. Tubes are still preferred in various niches in electronics (take apart your microwave oven if you don't believe me). But I'm glad to see them go. Ever tried to carry a big CRT? (You can still buy one. Check Amazon.) Photographic film is still around too, although the last Kodachrome processor closed after Kodak stopped supporting the chemicals needed to develop it (see photos from the last roll here). It's hard to miss film, especially in the dentist's office or the hospital x-ray lab. And fax machines will still be around for faxing legal and medical documents, and for receiving wacky advertisements (does that ever sell anything?).
There's more, but isn't 5 enough?
Monday, January 3, 2011
The Decade's 5 Best Market Trends in Photonics
Well, it'over: the decade-that-could-not-be-named (2001-2010). Time for a list of the Decade's 5 Best Market Trends in Photonics:
The triumph of flat displays. Remember the see-through iMacs? Don't CRTs look soooo 20th century now? And how about the touch screens for smart phones? They don't just make a nicer phone. They transform how we live. This is #1 because of the sheer size of the display industry, and its impact on everything else.
Cellphone cameras relaunch the image sensor market. The first cameraphone showed up in 2000, in Japan. There are now over 1 billion mobile phone handsets shipped every year, and most have cameras. That volume drives lots of other applications. And the quality! Again, transformative, and billions in new photonics revenue.
The Green Revolution: LEDs and solar. High-brightness LEDs are all about taking an old technology and improving the brightness to do some new things--a marketing VP's dream. This decade saw LEDs in mobile phones and TV backlights, but the talk now is about LED lighting taking over the world. And how about that solar market! Many investors have lost money in solar companies, but they keep coming. Somehow, we all want to be part of it. (I was too, back that was back in the 1970s.)
Molecular imaging and all other thing biophotonic. The average person on the street doesn't know it, but photonics is making a huge impact in biomedicine, from diagnostics to therapy. Optical molecular imaging is my favorite because of the promise it brings in finally solving some difficult and costly medical challenges. But there is also mid-IR spectroscopy, ultrafast surgery, OCT, and many more.
IPG and the fiber laser. Several companies had fiber laser products in the 1990s, but IPG Photonics gets credit for making it a big name in materials processing today, and the 5th largest maker of non-diode lasers. Ha! No one is laughing now. The fiber laser is one of the laser types you would design if you could pick only one, and if you had the materials you have today. The diode laser is the other.
There you have it. Next time if I get to it, the Decade's 5 Un-Trends in Photonics.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
What a weak dollar means to photonics
The dollar has been declining steadily again (see figure) but how much difference does it make to lasers and photonics? A lot to any salesperson who is competing in an export business. A falling dollar is like a discount in the price given to the buyer. And it can mean a lot to the value that we analysts assign to markets (such as in our new market estimate). For example, a falling dollar inflates the value in dollars of the production of Japanese blue-violet diode lasers for Blu-Ray players. But it doesn't mean a lot overall, for a lot of reasons. Why is that?
The conventional wisdom is that a falling dollar makes U.S. goods and services cheaper abroad, and foreign goods and services more expensive in the U.S. That is, it makes U.S. goods more competitive, and it deflates U.S. debt owed others as counted in foreign currency.
But many companies don't sell directly to companies abroad. A more complete downstream product may be exported by the customer's customer, but either way, the effect may be minimal--or at least obscure--to the photonics manufacturer.
Second, companies commonly import subcomponents from all over the world. A lower dollar then raises the cost to manufacture, erasing some or all of the advantages when it exports the complete product.
And, a lot of companies manufacture in the destination markets. This can help hedge against changes in currencies, among other things. In the example of Japanese blue-violet diode lasers, it changes the average prices and overall value, in dollars, that we assign to a market. But that can seem rather artificial when most of the Blu-Ray players are assembled in Asia anyway.
More often, the gains and losses from a falling dollar amount mostly to changes in market share: U.S. companies vs. non-U.S. companies, and U.S. importers vs. U.S. exporters.
For an explanation how a falling dollar is unlikely to create many new jobs in the U.S., read this article. It cites the reasons above, and notes that much of U.S. manufacturing is capital intensive, not labor-intensive. And, many manufacturers are small and not likely to ramp up hiring dramatically even if sales do improve.
Just the same, every little bit helps, especially if it means tipping a business from the red to the black or deeper into the black.
The conventional wisdom is that a falling dollar makes U.S. goods and services cheaper abroad, and foreign goods and services more expensive in the U.S. That is, it makes U.S. goods more competitive, and it deflates U.S. debt owed others as counted in foreign currency.
But many companies don't sell directly to companies abroad. A more complete downstream product may be exported by the customer's customer, but either way, the effect may be minimal--or at least obscure--to the photonics manufacturer.
Second, companies commonly import subcomponents from all over the world. A lower dollar then raises the cost to manufacture, erasing some or all of the advantages when it exports the complete product.
And, a lot of companies manufacture in the destination markets. This can help hedge against changes in currencies, among other things. In the example of Japanese blue-violet diode lasers, it changes the average prices and overall value, in dollars, that we assign to a market. But that can seem rather artificial when most of the Blu-Ray players are assembled in Asia anyway.
More often, the gains and losses from a falling dollar amount mostly to changes in market share: U.S. companies vs. non-U.S. companies, and U.S. importers vs. U.S. exporters.
For an explanation how a falling dollar is unlikely to create many new jobs in the U.S., read this article. It cites the reasons above, and notes that much of U.S. manufacturing is capital intensive, not labor-intensive. And, many manufacturers are small and not likely to ramp up hiring dramatically even if sales do improve.
Just the same, every little bit helps, especially if it means tipping a business from the red to the black or deeper into the black.
Monday, December 6, 2010
The new laser market numbers are out: $6.4 billion in 2010
The fall Laser Focus World survey is done and the estimate for the laser market in 2010 comes out to...(drum roll please)...$6.4 billion. That's a 27% gain over our revised value for 2009, recovering almost to the value in 2008 and not far from the peak in 2007. The strongest gains were in materials processing and communications.
A more complete picture will be presented, along with other market perspectives, at the annual Laser Focus World Marketplace Seminar in San Francisco, the same week as Photonics West.
Nearly every sector saw gains over 2009. But how could they not, considering the first half of 2009 was the worst period of the recession.
Nonetheless, the gains exceeded expectations, especially in the sectors related to electronics manufacturing: semiconductor fab tools, solar cell fab tools, flat panel fab tools, and electronics assembly tools. Let's hear it for smart phones and HDTV! China was also a big factor, buying tools at a time when other regions were more cautious.
And then there is the jobless recovery. Many manufacturers have cash and even credit, but remain wary about the future. Some chose to invest in capital equipment instead of hiring workers. The capital equipment improves the productivity, so it helps in their labor costs too.
It's worth a mention in this blog that historical values were significantly revised in two key sectors: excimer lasers for lithography and diode lasers for optical storage drives. These sectors are not relevant to most followers of the laser market numbers, but restating them does change the overall totals.
For more information, come to the seminar, or buy the complete forecast and segmentation in our market report.
A more complete picture will be presented, along with other market perspectives, at the annual Laser Focus World Marketplace Seminar in San Francisco, the same week as Photonics West.
Nearly every sector saw gains over 2009. But how could they not, considering the first half of 2009 was the worst period of the recession.
Nonetheless, the gains exceeded expectations, especially in the sectors related to electronics manufacturing: semiconductor fab tools, solar cell fab tools, flat panel fab tools, and electronics assembly tools. Let's hear it for smart phones and HDTV! China was also a big factor, buying tools at a time when other regions were more cautious.
And then there is the jobless recovery. Many manufacturers have cash and even credit, but remain wary about the future. Some chose to invest in capital equipment instead of hiring workers. The capital equipment improves the productivity, so it helps in their labor costs too.
It's worth a mention in this blog that historical values were significantly revised in two key sectors: excimer lasers for lithography and diode lasers for optical storage drives. These sectors are not relevant to most followers of the laser market numbers, but restating them does change the overall totals.
For more information, come to the seminar, or buy the complete forecast and segmentation in our market report.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Microsoft Kinect is a win for lasers and imaging
Bravo to Microsoft this week for launching a new market segment for lasers! The company finally launched the Kinect, a laser-based accessory that allows Xbox360 players to use their body as a remote control--gesture recognition. The lasers illuminate a field and an imaging system interprets it for the game console.
The reviews so far indicate that Microsoft is on to something here. It is a step up from the Nintendo Wii remote controller and way beyond the Sony PlayStation Eye, neither of which used laser projection to create the image. The main complaints so far seem to be that the Kinect is understandably a little clunky yet, and it doesn't work well in crowded spaces, like dorm rooms.
The system needs single-mode lasers to get a strong enough return signal to do the processing. But, they have to operate in the near-infrared to be invisible and at low enough average power to be eye safe. Kinect uses a structured light technique, which is to say that it interprets the distortion in an image created by the object. When the object moves, the field is distored accordingly.
The project was born as Project Natal, from two Israeli companies, Prime Sense and 3DV Systems. Microsoft bought 3DV in 2009, and this week it bought Canesta. Canesta is known for its laser-based 3D imaging system based on the time-of-flight technique. It works much like radar to recreate a 3D form. Years ago Canesta used the technique to read finger strokes on a virtual keyboard. It worked, and although I prefer an actual keyboard for touch typing, it may be useful as an alternative to touchscreens. The product is sold through a joint venture called Celluon, created in 2004.
The Kinect technique is less expensive than the Canesta approach. Maybe Microsoft has other plans for Canesta. Or it wants Canesta's expertise in imaging. Or maybe it wants to keep it away from competitors.
Any way you look at it this is all good news for lasers and imaging engineers. It's the beginning of a new market segment.
The reviews so far indicate that Microsoft is on to something here. It is a step up from the Nintendo Wii remote controller and way beyond the Sony PlayStation Eye, neither of which used laser projection to create the image. The main complaints so far seem to be that the Kinect is understandably a little clunky yet, and it doesn't work well in crowded spaces, like dorm rooms.
The system needs single-mode lasers to get a strong enough return signal to do the processing. But, they have to operate in the near-infrared to be invisible and at low enough average power to be eye safe. Kinect uses a structured light technique, which is to say that it interprets the distortion in an image created by the object. When the object moves, the field is distored accordingly.
The project was born as Project Natal, from two Israeli companies, Prime Sense and 3DV Systems. Microsoft bought 3DV in 2009, and this week it bought Canesta. Canesta is known for its laser-based 3D imaging system based on the time-of-flight technique. It works much like radar to recreate a 3D form. Years ago Canesta used the technique to read finger strokes on a virtual keyboard. It worked, and although I prefer an actual keyboard for touch typing, it may be useful as an alternative to touchscreens. The product is sold through a joint venture called Celluon, created in 2004.
The Kinect technique is less expensive than the Canesta approach. Maybe Microsoft has other plans for Canesta. Or it wants Canesta's expertise in imaging. Or maybe it wants to keep it away from competitors.
Any way you look at it this is all good news for lasers and imaging engineers. It's the beginning of a new market segment.
Friday, October 15, 2010
How the jobless recovery helps lasers
Several laser segments have recovered surprisingly well in this recession. This is after my warnings over the last two years that capital equipment markets take it especially hard in a recession. So what gives? Who needs new capital equipment when factories are running at lower capacity?
Enter the jobless recovery. Plant managers are talking about buying more efficient tools that operate more efficiently. In good times, this means buying a new tool to do more with the same staff. In recessions, this means buying a new tool to do more with less. Lasers play a role because they are used in big machine tools like sheet metal cutters.
Companies have cash. They are using it to buy back stock, buy capital equipment, and increase their reserves. What they're not doing is hiring workers.
There's a lot more to it than just the jobless recovery. There's the turnaround of the electronics industry after a two year slide. There's China. There are segments that are less sensitive to recessions. And so on.
But the jobless recovery explains why so much of the laser market is recovering as well as it is.
Enter the jobless recovery. Plant managers are talking about buying more efficient tools that operate more efficiently. In good times, this means buying a new tool to do more with the same staff. In recessions, this means buying a new tool to do more with less. Lasers play a role because they are used in big machine tools like sheet metal cutters.
Companies have cash. They are using it to buy back stock, buy capital equipment, and increase their reserves. What they're not doing is hiring workers.
There's a lot more to it than just the jobless recovery. There's the turnaround of the electronics industry after a two year slide. There's China. There are segments that are less sensitive to recessions. And so on.
But the jobless recovery explains why so much of the laser market is recovering as well as it is.
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